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LONDON/HOUSTON/SINGAPORE, April 8, 2026 – Prolonged disruption to Middle East energy supplies could accelerate a structural shift in global energy systems, halving oil and gas import dependence by 2050 and reducing oil demand by 20% and gas demand by 10% relative to the base case. As countries prioritise energy security, demand is increasingly met through electrification, renewables, coal and nuclear, while reliance on globally traded fuels declines, according to Wood Mackenzie.

However, this shift comes with trade-offs. Energy systems become more domestic and diversified, but also more costly, while near-term emissions rise due to increased coal use before converging with the base case over the longer term. These findings are based on a new conflict scenario from Wood Mackenzie, part of its Lens Energy Transition Scenarios, which explores how sustained geopolitical instability could reshape global energy demand, supply and investment through 2050.

Crisis-driven disruption, long-term transformation

The scenario assumes a major geopolitical escalation beginning in early 2026, disrupting 15–20% of global oil and LNG supply. In the near term, oil demand falls by around 9% due to supply outages before recovering to pre-crisis levels by 2030, Wood Mackenzie noted.

Beyond 2030, structural shifts take hold as countries accelerate efforts to reduce reliance on imported fuels. Oil and gas demand declines more rapidly than in the base case, as governments prioritise domestic and diversified energy systems.

“Geopolitical crises can act as powerful catalysts for long-term system change,” said Prakash Sharma, Vice President, Scenarios & Technologies at Wood Mackenzie. “In this scenario, the world moves decisively towards energy independence, with lasting implications for global fuel demand and trade.”

Source: Wood Mackenzie Lens ETS

Electrification and efficiency at the core

Electrification and efficiency emerge as the primary pathways to energy independence. Overall power demand remains broadly in line with the base case, as lower demand from electrolytic hydrogen production is offset by wider electrification across transport, buildings and industry.

This shift reduces reliance on imported fuels while maintaining overall energy service demand.

A rebalanced energy mix

By 2050, the global energy mix shifts significantly under the conflict scenario:

• Oil demand falls 20% and gas 10%, while coal rises 20% as countries diversify supply and prioritise domestic resources
• Nuclear generation increases 40% above the base case, with both conventional and next-generation technologies scaling from the 2030s
• Renewables continue rapid expansion, forming the backbone of domestic power systems
• Hydrogen and carbon capture adoption declines, as policymakers favour more efficient and secure energy pathways

“Energy systems become more local, more diversified and less reliant on complex international trade,” said Jom Madan, Principal Analyst, Scenarios & Technologies. “Electrification and nuclear take priority, while hydrogen and carbon capture are deprioritised due to cost, efficiency and security considerations.”

Near-term coal, long-term nuclear

Coal plays a larger role in the near term as countries respond to supply shocks by maximising domestic energy sources and delaying plant retirements. Over the longer term, nuclear expands significantly, providing stable, fuel-secure baseload power as new capacity comes online from the 2030s.

Gas-fired power and hydrogen-based abatement pathways are scaled back as energy systems favour more secure and proven alternatives.

Security comes at a cost

The shift towards energy independence comes with higher system costs, as countries move away from globally optimised supply chains towards domestic production and diversified sourcing.

“Energy independence reduces exposure to external shocks, but it comes at a structural cost premium,” said Lindsey Entwistle, Principal Analyst, Scenarios & Technologies. “This creates new competitiveness challenges for energy-intensive industries, while advantaging more self-sufficient regions.”

Climate outcomes converge

Despite diverging pathways, cumulative emissions under the conflict scenario remain broadly aligned with Wood Mackenzie’s base case, tracking a 2.6°C warming trajectory. While emissions rise in the near term due to increased coal use, these are offset over time by stronger electrification and nuclear deployment.

“The scenario reaches a similar emissions outcome through a different route,” Sharma concluded. “It reflects a trade-off between near-term energy security and long-term decarbonisation, with countries ultimately relying on proven, domestically controlled technologies.”

London — 8 April 2026 — Global Citizen Solutions (“GCS”), a leading residency and citizenship planning advisory firm, through its Global Intelligence Unit, has released the Global Atlas of Risk and Readiness 2026 (GARR), a new benchmarking framework assessing how effectively countries combine structural stability with long-term growth capacity across 85 jurisdictions.

The report evaluates countries through a dual lens — structural risk and forward-looking readiness — to provide investors, globally mobile individuals, and policymakers with a clearer picture of where capital is most likely to remain protected while compounding over the long term. In an environment shaped by geopolitical fragmentation, regulatory shifts, and technological disruption, the findings point to a decisive shift: resilience, not size, is what defines investment attractiveness in 2026.

Top 5: Institutional strength defines global leadership

• Switzerland
• Germany
• Singapore
• Ireland
• Finland

Europe leads — but not all European economies equally

Seven of the top ten countries in the GARR rankings are European, with Switzerland (1st), Germany (2nd), Ireland (4th), Finland (5th), Denmark (6th), the Netherlands (7th), and Austria (8th) all placing within the global elite. Europe’s dominance reflects the structural premium now placed on regulatory predictability, institutional depth, and regional integration — characteristics deeply embedded across the continent and reinforced through coordinated policy frameworks.

Switzerland leads the overall ranking with a score of 93.73, combining financial sophistication, innovation capacity, and near-universal strength across governance and human capital indicators. Germany ranks 2nd overall but leads the entire dataset on readiness at 91.87 — the highest readiness score of any country assessed — reflecting industrial depth, economic diversification, and a human capital base unmatched in the region.

The UK at 21st: strong foundations, a widening readiness gap

The United Kingdom ranks 21st globally with an overall score of 88.68, classified by the GARR as ‘Advanced and Stable’. The UK retains genuine structural strengths: deep and liquid capital markets and institutional foundations that continue to attract long-term investment. Its low risk score reflects a country where the fundamentals remain sound.

The GARR measures countries across two equally weighted pillars: structural risk and forward-looking readiness. The UK’s risk score of 63.61 places it among the lower-risk economies globally — a genuine strength. But its readiness score of 80.96 ranks it only 28th, well below its overall position of 21st. It is the strength of the UK’s risk profile that lifts its overall ranking; on readiness alone, the picture is more complex.

Ireland makes the point with force. Ranking 4th overall with a score of 92.45 — seventeen places and nearly four points above the UK — Ireland places 9th globally on readiness, demonstrating what deep regional integration, regulatory alignment, and governance consistency can deliver at scale. For a country of 5.4 million people to outperform the UK by this margin across both pillars is analytically significant. The GARR framework attributes Ireland’s strength to precisely the structural advantages the UK has moved further from since 2016: frictionless access to European capital, talent, and regulatory frameworks, and the institutional confidence that comes with full membership of a coordinated economic bloc.

“In today’s global economy, capital flows to resilience, and the data shows that institutional strength, not size, is the defining factor behind sustainable investment performance. Europe’s dominance in this year’s rankings is no accident — it reflects decades of investment in the institutional foundations that capital increasingly demands. And the performance of economies like Switzerland or Singapore, prove that in a fragmented world, agility and governance depth matter far more than scale,” said Patricia Casaburi, CEO of Global Citizen Solutions.

Singapore: further proof that biggest isn’t best

Singapore ranks 3rd overall with a score of 92.60 — above the United States, and the only Asian economy to break into the global top tier. It records the lowest risk score of any country in the dataset while ranking 11th globally on readiness, with exceptional digital infrastructure, AI capability, and human capital. The report classifies Singapore as a global node of capital, innovation, and connectivity, demonstrating how strategic positioning and institutional coherence can more than compensate for limited geographic or demographic scale.

A world pulling apart – Mind the gap

Across the 85 jurisdictions assessed, the GARR finds a global system that is fragmenting rather than converging. A compact group of highly resilient economies — concentrated in Europe and anchored by strategic hubs in Asia and the Gulf — is pulling further ahead. Below them, a broader set of countries, including several major economies, faces the challenge of converting existing strengths into the kind of structural readiness that long-term capital increasingly demands.

For investors, the implication is clear: the question is no longer where risks are lowest, but where they are most effectively managed.

The full GARR report is available at globalcitizensolutions.com.

Abu Dhabi, UAE – 08 April 2026: Abu Dhabi Maritime Academy (ADMA), the region’s leading academic institution for maritime training, and an integral part of AD Ports Group (ADX: ADPORTS), has signed a research, development, and operational deployment agreement with Minexx, a technology-enabled mining and mineral processing company operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The agreement covers the design and deployment of an advanced, AI-enabled ore sorting machine, engineered to upgrade low-grade mineral material into export-ready products.

Under the terms of the agreement, ADMA will develop and commission the AI-driven mineral pre-processing unit, featuring proprietary machine-learning models and specialised hardware. Once deployed at Minexx’s operations, the solution will be integrated into live mineral processing workflows to improve recovery rates, enhance operational efficiency, and unlock value from previously uneconomic raw mineral material. This collaboration synergises ADMA’s applied research and artificial intelligence capabilities with Minexx’s established operational footprint in the DRC.

Dr. Yasser Al Wahedi, President of Abu Dhabi Maritime Academy, said: “Deploying applied research and artificial intelligence into live operating environments enables innovation to deliver measurable industrial impact. This collaboration demonstrates how advanced engineering and AI can enhance efficiency, performance, and sustainability in mineral processing, reflecting AD Ports Group’s commitment to technological leadership and value creation.” 

Mansoor Hamayun, Co-Founder and Chairman of Minexx, said: “Across the DRC, one of the key challenges in tin, tungsten, and tantalum supply chains is the ability to economically upgrade low-grade material to export standards. This partnership brings together applied AI, long-term capital commitment, and operational execution to address that challenge at scale.”

This initiative aligns with AD Ports Group’s broader strategic engagement in the DRC, following the recent signing of Heads of Terms (HoT) for the development and operation of a multipurpose terminal at Matadi Port. The synergy between port infrastructure and upstream, AI-enabled value addition reinforces the Group’s role as an integrated trade and industrial enabler. In addition, this collaboration highlights AD Ports Group’s growing contribution to African markets, extending its impact beyond port infrastructure and logistics to leverage advanced digital technologies that unlock value across industrial sectors.

Strategically located in Central Africa, the DRC serves as a vital regional trade gateway. These initiatives reflect a shared commitment to strengthening the country’s global connectivity and supporting long-term economic development.

India’s steel sector achieved a remarkable 10.7% growth in the financial year 2025–26, reinforcing its role as a key driver of the nation’s industrial and infrastructure development. The growth was fueled by strong domestic demand, ongoing infrastructure projects, and a rise in steel exports.

Both public and private steel producers ramped up production, helping meet rising market needs. Exports surged to new markets, while imports declined, strengthening India’s position in the global steel trade. Leading companies reported record or near-record production, reflecting increased capacity and efficiency improvements across the sector.

Industry experts say this robust performance demonstrates the resilience of India’s manufacturing base. Continued investments in technology, diversification of export markets, and better logistics will be critical to sustaining growth in the years ahead.

Abhimanyu Munjal, MD & CEO, Hero FinCorp

“The RBI’s decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25% reinforces policy continuity amid mixed global signals. The neutral stance strikes a calibrated balance between supporting growth and maintaining inflation discipline, providing much-needed visibility for NBFCs and the broader financial ecosystem.

For NBFCs, this stability enables more confident credit planning and disciplined risk-taking, particularly in underserved and emerging segments. With credit demand evolving across retail and MSME sectors, a predictable rate environment will be critical in sustaining momentum. The sector is also seeing improvement in operating metrics, including system-level NPAs, indicating a stronger underlying foundation.

Overall, the RBI’s measured approach reflects a pragmatic alignment with global externalities at this point in time, while ensuring the financial economy remains robust and the growth impetus of the economy stays on track.”