By: Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com MENA
When examining Hyperliquid at this sensitive stage of the cryptocurrency market cycle, I believe the current picture reflects a classic divergence between short-term pressures and underlying fundamentals that remain capable of reshaping the medium- and long-term trajectory. The recent pullback that pushed HYPE below the $25 level after a series of losses approaching 25% over five days cannot be separated from the broader macroeconomic context.
The decline coincided with global liquidity tightening and the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates, a move that led to a repricing of risk across all high-volatility asset classes, most notably cryptocurrencies. From my perspective, this decline does not reflect a structural weakness in the project as much as it reflects a temporary phase of risk aversion.
When analyzing on-chain data, I find that the drop in HYPE’s social dominance to around 0.298% represents a psychological rather than a structural signal. Historically, declining media and community attention in decentralized infrastructure projects often precedes smart accumulation phases, especially when accompanied by a decline in open interest, as seen in its drop to $150.16 million, the lowest level since October. In my assessment, this behavior indicates the exit of short-term speculators rather than strategic investors, which helps ease selling pressure and paves the way for price stabilization ahead of any subsequent bullish wave.
In the near term and throughout 2025, I expect Hyperliquid to remain within a volatile trading range, with a gradual tendency to stabilize above the $20 level, provided no new macroeconomic shocks emerge. The decision by the Hyperliquid Foundation to propose a vote to burn more than 37 million HYPE tokens—equivalent to 3.71% of total supply—strikes me as a smart move that reflects maturity in managing the project’s monetary policy. In my view, this step is not merely aimed at supporting the price, but at anchoring long-term confidence in the team’s commitment to supply discipline, a factor that is often priced in later rather than immediately.
What supports my balanced outlook for 2025 is the clear shift in the derivatives market, where open interest has risen to $1.53 billion alongside an increase in the weighted funding rate, signaling a gradual return of bullish positions. I see this behavior as reflecting investors’ willingness to take on risk at lower price levels, while simultaneously warning of unhealthy excess if funding rates remain elevated. Accordingly, I expect 2025 to be a year of repricing and base-building rather than one marked by all-time highs.
When turning to price expectations for 2026, I lean more toward cautious optimism. If Hyperliquid continues to expand as a specialized perpetual futures platform while improving liquidity efficiency and user experience, I believe the market will reassess HYPE as a structural asset rather than merely a speculative token. Any project that combines real usage growth with a deflationary supply mechanism has a genuine opportunity to achieve sustainable price appreciation. Based on this scenario, I see a return to price levels above $40 in 2026 as feasible, provided global monetary conditions stabilize and institutional capital flows back into the digital asset sector.
The key drivers influencing 2026, from my perspective, will revolve around three main factors. The first is the evolution of global cryptocurrency regulation, as any regulatory clarity would favor technically well-structured decentralized platforms such as Hyperliquid. The second is the project’s ability to sustain high trading volumes without relying on artificial incentives, which reflects product quality rather than the generosity of rewards. The third factor is managing community expectations, as rebuilding trust after downturns requires transparent communication and operational stability.
In conclusion, I see Hyperliquid today in a genuine testing phase that does not threaten its survival as much as it filters and refines its investor base. Current declines, in my view, represent an opportunity for repositioning rather than a reason for indiscriminate exit. The year 2025 is likely to be one of consolidation and confidence rebuilding, while 2026 holds the potential for a transition into a more mature growth phase if macro conditions align and internal project support remains strong. Ultimately, I believe markets reward projects that endure periods of doubt before reaping the rewards of conviction.
