Mumbai, Dece 9: Knight Frank India today released its flagship retail study, Think India, Think Retail 2025 Value Capture: Unlocking Potential, presenting the most extensive mapping of the country’s retail real estate across 32 cities. A significant finding of the report is that nearly one-fifth of India’s operational shopping centres fall into the category of ‘Ghost Malls’ assets marked by high vacancies, weak tenant curation, ageing infrastructure, and declining relevance. Across 365 shopping centres surveyed, 74 have been classified as ghost assets, representing 15.5 million square feet (mn sq ft) of dormant retail potential. Within this pool, 15 centres with a combined area of 4.8 mn sq ft have been identified as high-potential assets that could deliver as much as INR 357 crore (cr) in annual rental revenues if reinvigorated effectively. Of the 15 shortlisted assets with clear reinvigoration potential, Tier 1 cities hold an opportunity of INR 236 crore in annual rentals, while Tier 2 cities add another INR 121 cr to the reinvigoration landscape.

The study reveals that the ghost mall challenge is not confined to smaller cities or emerging markets. Tier 1 cities account for 11.9 mn sq ft of this dormant stock, indicating that even some of the country’s earliest and most established malls have struggled to keep pace with changing consumer expectations, shifting brand strategies, and the evolution of modern, experience-led retail formats. Tier 2 cities contribute the remaining 3.6 mn sq ft, where operational inefficiencies, inconsistent management practices, and limited anchor presence have restrained shopping centres from reaching their full potential. 

Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India, said,

“India’s retail sector is entering a defining phase of growth, supported by strong consumption and a clear shift toward high-quality organised retail formats. Our analysis shows that reinvigorating 4.8 mn sq ft of dormant mall stock could unlock INR 357 cr in annual rentals, which is a substantial opportunity for developers and investors. With Grade A malls operating at only 5.7 percent vacancy and several Tier 2 cities demonstrating strong absorption trends, the sector is exceptionally well placed for future expansion. As consumer demand evolves and brands scale their footprint, revitalising older centres through redevelopment or adaptive reuse will play a pivotal role in shaping the next chapter of India’s retail transformation.”

Identifying ghost shopping centres is essential to unlocking viable reinvigoration opportunities. High vacancies, unstable tenant mixes, outdated layouts, and weak or missing anchor tenants are the clearest signals of an underperforming asset. Grade C malls and older developments, particularly in peripheral locations, are most vulnerable to obsolescence unless repositioned as community hubs, co-working spaces, or mixed-use developments.

Tier 1 cities are beginning to see a decline in ghost shopping centres as redevelopment, new ownership models, design upgrades, and alternate-use conversions bring ageing assets back to life. With rising flexible workspace demand and evolving retail formats, dormant centres are finding renewed relevance. While Grade A malls continue to outperform and lower-grade assets struggle, tightening quality supply is shifting attention to these revitalise-able centres. With focused interventions, improved management, and curated leasing, ghost malls can be repurposed into viable, future-ready assets that support the next phase of India’s retail growth.

Of the 365 shopping centres across the top 32 cities, 74 are classified as ghost malls. Within this group, immediate opportunity lies in the 15 centres which alone have the potential to unlock INR 357 cr in annual rentals by reinvigorating 4.8 mn sq ft of dormant space. 

Tier 1 cities offer two-thirds of immediate potential to generate a rental revenue of INR 236 cr, and Tier 2 cities comprises the remaining one third with INR 121 cr rental revenue. Reviving distressed centres, often at a lower cost than new builds, can rapidly yield healthy, value-added cashflows. 

India’s dormant retail infrastructure shows strong reinvigoration potential, especially in ageing but well-located shopping centres. Of the 74 ghost malls identified, 44% lie in the West, aligning with both favourable catchments and revenue potential. The West and South together contribute 77% of the estimated rental opportunity, while the Top 8 metros account for 66% of the INR 357 cr annual potential for 2025. Further, a rental yield of 5.86% makes reinvigoration a compelling investment. With improving connectivity and a shift toward experience-led, mixed-use development, revitalising dormant retail assets is set to drive the next wave of growth.

India’s retail real estate is becoming increasingly polarised. While Grade A malls record high occupancy, strong footfalls, and robust brand mixes, ageing and poorly designed centres from the early 2,000s face declining relevance due to structural flaws, weak catchment planning, outdated formats, and anchor tenant exits. Vacancy across 32 cities stands at 15.4%, yet the real challenge is a shortage of quality space, especially in Tier 2 cities. This gap creates a strong opportunity to revitalise dormant malls through design upgrades, tenant remixing, and alternate-use conversions. Success depends on accurate diagnosis and disciplined execution backed by strong design and management. 

In contrast, markets with ageing malls, fragmented ownership, or design inefficiencies demonstrate higher vacancy levels and weaker brand penetration. The analysis shows that vacancy across all shopping centres in the 32 cities stands at 15.4%, but this headline number masks a clear structural divide: Grade A centres enjoy single-digit vacancies driven by steady demand and robust performance, whereas Grade C assets experience vacancies as high as 36%. High streets in many cities continue to thrive, driven largely by Indian brands, while airports maintain a strong mix of premium international and domestic retailers. Overall, the Retail Pulse points to a market where demand is strong, consumer aspirations continue to rise, and the most significant opportunity lies in expanding and upgrading quality retail infrastructure to keep pace with evolving expectations.

Shopping Centre Performances across Cities

Across 32 Indian cities, the report reveals a dynamic, yet uneven retail landscape defined by strong demand for quality spaces and widening disparities between Grade A and lower-grade centres. Tier 1 cities account for 73% of India’s shopping centre stock, but several Tier 2 cities such as Mysuru, Vijayawada, Vadodara, Thiruvananthapuram, and Visakhapatnam have performed remarkably with near-full occupancy and balanced tenant mixes, highlighting growing appetite for organised retail beyond metros. 

High performing Markets based on Vacancy 

A handful of cities clearly outperform the rest on key metrics like vacancy. These high achievers generally have retail supply well calibrated to demand, and benefit from proactive centre management. Shopping centres in such cities operate near full capacity and enjoy healthy tenant mixes.

• Mysuru (vacancy ~2%) – A tightly supplied market with very limited organised retail space. The scarcity of shopping centres relative to demand ensures that any quality centre attracts strong footfalls and remains almost fully occupied.
• Vijayawada (vacancy ~4%) and Vadodara (~5%) – Both are mid-sized cities with steady growth in consumer spends, yet new retail supply has been introduced cautiously. This equilibrium means the existing shopping centres face less competition, keeping vacancies low and retailer interest high.
• Thiruvananthapuram (~6%) and Visakhapatnam (~6%) – Southern India’s rising retail stars, where robust consumer demand meets a new generation of well-managed shopping centres. These cities have benefited from avoiding overbuilding; each new centre has strong anchors and caters to an eager customer base, resulting in consistently high occupancy.

Underperforming Markets based on Vacancy

At the other end of the spectrum, several cities struggle with significant vacant retail space and underutilised shopping centres. The causes range from oversupply and poor planning to operational issues and changing market dynamics:

• Nagpur (vacancy ~49%) – Nearly half of this city’s shopping centre space lies empty. A spate of development in anticipation of future demand overshot what Nagpur’s consumer base could absorb. Excess capacity, combined with only modest growth in retailer interest, has led to centres that never achieved critical mass and languish with high vacancies.
• Amritsar (~41%) and Jalandhar (~34%) – In these cities of Punjab, developers built too many shopping centres in proximity, outpacing the depth of viable retail tenants. Though consumer appetite exists, when multiple large centres compete for the same set of brands, none can sustain healthy occupancy. The result has been chronically half-empty properties as retailers cherry-pick only the top-performing locations. 

Retail Density

Shopping centre density varies sharply, with cities like Mangaluru (1,521) and Lucknow (1,230) showing high penetration, while Pune (1,103) and Bengaluru (1,031) also reflect strong modern retail presence. In contrast, Surat (118) and Ludhiana (218) have limited mall infrastructure, where traditional formats dominate. Among metros, Mumbai and NCR benefit more from sheer market size than density, while Chennai and Hyderabad exhibit mid-level penetration. These contrasts highlight varied levels of market maturity and distinct opportunities for future retail expansion. 

Brand Mix 

Across India’s retail landscape, the mix of international and national brands differs sharply by format, revealing how each environment caters to distinct shopper expectations. Shopping centres offer the most balanced and globally attuned mix, with Indian brands accounting for 67% of the tenant universe and international brands contributing a significant 33%. This makes malls the primary gateways for global retailers entering India. High streets, by contrast, remain deeply rooted in domestic retail culture, with an overwhelming 86% share of Indian brands and only 14% international presence, reflecting their legacy-driven appeal and hyper-local relevance. Airports occupy a unique middle ground with 70% of brands here are Indian, while 30% are international, a ratio shaped by the affluent, captive traveller base that favours premium and global labels alongside established local favourites. Together, these contrasts demonstrate that while shopping centres and airports are driving international brand penetration across the country, high streets continue to champion India’s homegrown retail strength