New Delhi, May 7 (BNP): India’s retail inflation is expected to inch closer to the 4 per cent mark in April 2026 amid mounting pressure from rising food prices and uncertain global commodity trends, according to a report by Bank of Baroda.
The report highlighted that price pressures across essential commodities have strengthened steadily over the past three months, signalling a gradual build-up in inflationary trends. The Bank of Baroda Essential Commodities Index (BOB ECI) increased 1.1 per cent year-on-year in April, while recording a 0.3 per cent rise on a monthly basis — the sharpest monthly increase since August 2025.
Analysts pointed to a noticeable rise in the prices of key kitchen staples such as tomatoes, onions, and edible oils, along with other household essentials. The report observed that inflationary pressure is no longer confined to isolated items and is becoming increasingly widespread across categories.
The bank warned that the inflation outlook remains vulnerable to global developments, especially as geopolitical tensions continue to keep international commodity markets volatile. Elevated prices of crude oil, metals, and food commodities in the global market could add to domestic inflationary pressures in the coming months.
It also noted that imported inflation risks are becoming more pronounced, particularly in segments like edible oils that are heavily dependent on global supply chains and overseas pricing trends.
While inflation is still expected to remain broadly within the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance range, economists believe the balance of risks has shifted upward due to persistent food inflation and uncertain global conditions.
The report stressed the need for close monitoring of commodity prices and geopolitical developments, as any further spike in global costs could have a direct impact on household expenses and overall inflation trends in India.
