Bhubaneswar, June 26 (UDN): The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected the formation of a low pressure area over the North Bay of Bengal during the first week of July, a development that could significantly strengthen monsoon activity across eastern and central India, including Odisha.
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According to IMD’s latest extended range outlook, a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the northwest Bay of Bengal, off the Odisha coast, around July 2. Under its influence, a low pressure area may develop over the North Bay of Bengal between July 3 and 4.
Weather experts said the system is expected to move in a west-northwestward direction and may intensify further during the second week of July, thereby enhancing the southwest monsoon flow over large parts of the country.
Several leading numerical weather prediction models, including IMD-GFS, NCEP-GFS, NCMRWF Mithuna, ECMWF, as well as artificial intelligence-based forecasting models such as Pangu Weather and GraphCast, have indicated the possibility of such a weather system taking shape over the Bay of Bengal.
However, the IMD has clarified that no immediate cyclogenesis is expected during the next two weeks. Ensemble forecast models indicate only a low probability—between 20 and 30 per cent—of the system intensifying into a depression. Current model consensus points towards the formation of a low pressure area rather than a stronger cyclonic system.
Meteorologists noted that while uncertainties remain regarding the exact track and intensity of the system, its formation is likely to trigger enhanced rainfall activity over Odisha and several parts of eastern and central India.
The IMD is closely monitoring the evolving weather conditions and has advised stakeholders, particularly farmers and fishermen, to remain updated with official weather bulletins and advisories.
